A one-page account of manmade global warming
Supplementary material
Vaughan Pratt, Stanford University
1. Paper (PDF format)
2. Abstract
We divide the 168 years 1851-2019 into two periods on each side of the
year 1977, of respective durations 1.26 centuries and 0.42 (1.26/3)
centuries. We tabulate three rising quantities:
- Cumulative
industrial emissions as estimated by the Carbon Dioxide Information
Analysis Center (CDIAC);
- The two main greenhouse gases (GHGs):
- atmospheric water vapor estimated at 12.9 Eg and assumed constant;
- atmospheric CO2 based on sources for two periods:
- 1851-1959: reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 up to 1960
- 1960-2019: observations of CO2 at Mauna Loa;
- The global mean land temperature trend for each period based on
millions of terrestrial observations during those periods and summarized
as CRUTEM4.
We first observe that the emissions during each period are very roughly
twice the increase in total GHGs, giving strong evidence of a causal
connection after allowing for drawdown by ocean, plants, etc.
We then observe that all three quantities are greater for the second
period than the first.
Moreover their centennial rate
of increase (dividing by respectively 1.26 and 0.42) for the second
period is greater than for the first by considerably larger factors.
3. References
TBD
5. Primary data sources
All data is included in the foregoing software. For verification purposes
the original provenances of the data can be accessed as follows.
Caveat: These links are on sites I have no control over and tend to change without
warning. If you encounter a broken link please email me immediately: pratt
at
cs.stanford.edu