AGU Presentations since 2011

Vaughan Pratt
Stanford University

Summary

The ten presentations below, covering the years 2011-2021 less the pandemic year 2020, address the question raised in the 2011 presentation:

Why is it that CO2 rises steadily but global temperature fluctuates?

After considering many aspects I eventually arrived at the conclusion summarized in the following plot of global mean surface temperature modeled as a function of rising CO2.

The basis for the blue curve is discussed at this Quora answer.
  • 2021: Turbulence as a Mediator of Extremes Due to Abrupt Climate Change . Poster, Session GC55D-0471 (Friday December 17), American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2019, New Orleans.
  • 2019: Calibrating centennial climate feedbacks by the Sun:
    Are we underestimating the climate feedbacks?
    . Poster, Session A41M (Thursday December 12), American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2019, Moscone Hall, San Francisco.
  • 2018: Sources of Variation in Climate Sensitivity Estimates. Poster, Global Environmental Change session GC33H: The Rate of Global Warming on Decadal to Multidecadal Timescales: Hiatus Events, Surge Events, and Climate Sensitivity. Session GC33H, Posters, Wednesday December 12, Convention Center, Hall A-C.
  • 2017: Magmatic Volatiles as an Amplifier of Centrifugal Volcanism. Poster, Perspectives on International Activities in Earth and Space Research and Supporting Informatics session IN43D (December 14), American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2017, Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, New Orleans.
  • 2016: A Centrifugal Volcanism Model for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation . Poster, Global Environmental Change session GC13G (December 12), American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2016, Moscone Hall, San Francisco.
  • 2015: Model Complexity of Global Climate: Could Arrhenius have foreseen the hiatus? . Poster, Global Environmental Change session GC43C (December 17), American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2015, Moscone Hall, San Francisco.
  • 2014: An Ekman Transport Mechanism for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation . Poster, Global Environmental Change session GC21C (December 16), American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2014, Moscone Hall, San Francisco. [A discussion with Scripps' Lynne Talley has since persuaded me that Ekman transport can at best carry ocean thermals to the OML over the last few hundred meters, which may nevertheless help those thermals that don't make it all the way to the OML.]
  • 2013: Reconciling multidecadal land-sea global temperature with rising CO2. Talk, SWIRL session GC53C "Understanding 400 ppm Climate: Past, Present and Future" (December 13), American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2013, Moscone Hall, San Francisco. See also video of oral presentation.
  • 2012: Multidecadal climate to within a millikelvin. Poster, Global Environmental Change session GC23C (December 4), American Geophysical Union Fall meeting 2012, San Francisco.
  • 2011: A three-component analytic model of long-term climate change . Poster, Global Environmental Change session GC43B (December 8), American Geophysical Union Fall meeting 2011, San Francisco.

  • Other presentations

    The Four Horsemen of Modern Multidecadal Climate

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